| Metric / Component | Grade | Score (0–100) | Evidence & Context | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL ESEN MASTER SCORE | C+ | 56 | Mixed signals: high EPS growth (134% YoY) and AI/photonics momentum offset by elevated valuation, revenue contraction (−12.6% YoY), and 7.5% single-day drawdown. | 12M |
| SA Quality/Value Composite | C | 52 | PE 96.9x (high valuation flag triggered); forward PE 63.4x still elevated. Enterprise value $21.4B on $1.6B TTM revenue = 13.2x EV/Rev; PEG 0.72 suggests partial growth justification. | 12M |
| Zacks Earnings Momentum | B | 73 | EPS growth 133.9% YoY from $2.16 TTM; forward PE 63.4x implies consensus expectation of near-30% annual EPS CAGR through 2027. Benchmark target raised to $335 (recent, +78% upside). | 12M |
| Institutional & Smart Money Flow | B− | 68 | T. Rowe increased stake 97% to 4.68M shares (4.16% ownership). 417 institutional holders (+4.77% YoY); smart money positioning bullish. Recent 80% SiPho contract wins ($1.3B+) and IQE partnership attract asset flows. | 6M |
| Growth Sustainability & Moat | B | 71 | AI photonics (SiPho) supply bottleneck provides near-term moat; RF Infrastructure 45% revenue target by 2027 supports margin profile. Revenue contraction (−12.6% YoY) indicates cyclical headwind; Zacks Forward PE 63x prices in strong recovery. | 12M |
| Valuation & Safety (Pre-Penalty) | C | 48 | PE 96.9x, forward 63.4x both exceed semiconductor median (25–35x). Price $187.84; analyst targets range $135–$335 (median ~$170, −10% from current). High valuation flag active; no dividend cushion. | 12M |
| Penalty Overlay | −8 | −8 | Single-day −7.5% drawdown in volatile market; −15 point move since open ($207→$187.84). Crowding risk: AI photonics narrative is consensus-long; recent analyst target escalation ($335 vs prior $226) signals potential peak enthusiasm. | 1M |
| CONFIDENCE SCORE | B− | 69 | Core metrics solid (EPS growth, institutional flows, contract wins). Data gaps: earnings date (Aug 4, 2026), revenue TTM guidance missing. Analyst consensus 80% bullish; target bands widen (range: $135–$335 = 147% spread). Medium confidence. | 6M |
| Volatility & Drawdown Risk | D+ | 41 | Beta 0.97 (market-tracking). 52W range: $43–$320 = 642% span; YTD +293%. Current volatility: −$15.15 swing on single day. SiPho narrative creates lumpy momentum cycles. | 3M |
| Crowding Risk Flag | ⚠ HIGH | 72 | Benchmark target jump from $230→$335 within 2 months signals analyst herding. SiPho/AI photonics trade crowded; recent 52W return +293%; media coverage intense. Downside risk if execution falters. | 3M |
Sector Context: TSEM (specialty-node foundry, RF & SiPho) trades at a premium to mainstream IDMs (Intel, AMD, TSM average PE 20–35x). Closest comps: SkyWater (SKWR, PE ~15x), GlobalFoundries (GFS, PE ~18x). TSEM's 96.9x PE justified only if SiPho revenue scales to 35–40% of total by 2027 and operates at 30%+ EBIT margins. Relative to pure-play AI accelerator enablers (NVDA, SMCI), TSEM is a lower-cap leverage play; relative to traditional fabs, it carries structural premium for specialization moat.
Q2 2026 earnings (Aug 4) will be critical inflection point. Current −7.5% swing and $15 intraday move reflect thin float trading and sentiment whipsaws. Analyst target escalation to $335 (Benchmark) is ambitious; validate margin expansion and SiPho ASP before chasing. Risk/reward favors partial position reduction on strength.
If TSEM executes 2026–2027 SiPho scale-up and RF revenue roadmap (45% of total), forward EPS could reach $4.50–$5.50, supporting $250–$290 target by late 2026. Revenue growth inflection likely Q4 2026. Current $187.84 price is fair-to-rich; ideal accumulation zone $155–$170 (20% discount). Sector tailwinds (AI datacenter, optical) remain intact.
Recent analyst research shows price targets in a range of $300–$335, with Benchmark raising its target to $335 from $226, citing recent results, updated outlooks, and capacity expansion plans in optical datacenter networking and RF infrastructure . However, other aggregators report wider disparity: 9 Wall Street analysts provide a median target of $169.00 (ranging $140–$230) , while another 11-analyst consensus averages $170.65 . The divergence reflects split sentiment post-earnings revisions. At current price of $187.84, the median $169 target implies −10% downside risk, while the Benchmark $335 target (+78% upside) represents bull-case scenario contingent on SiPho execution. Analyst buy percentage consensus is at 80% , indicating predominantly bullish positioning.
TSEM Stock Analysis & Forecast
Is TSEM a Good Investment in 2026?
Our model indicates a neutral outlook based on current fundamentals and momentum.
TSEM Stock Forecast
Based on recent earnings trends, valuation metrics, and sector performance, TSEM shows balanced risk-reward characteristics.
Should You Buy TSEM Now?
Investors should consider market conditions, volatility, and long-term positioning before taking a position in TSEM.