BBAI
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MASTER
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ESEN VERDICT
Analyzing…
Horizon6–12M
Confidence—
Data coverage—
Snapshot
Ticker
BBAI
Company
BigBear.ai Holdings
Sector
Technology
Market Cap
$1.56B
Current Price
$3.34
52W Range
$2.59–$9.39
YTD Return
−42.5%
Today
+2.45%
Earnings Momentum
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| EPS (TTM) | −$0.1806 | Unprofitable |
| EPS Growth YoY | Data not disclosed | Limited Visibility |
| Revenue Growth YoY | −13.72% | Contraction |
| Forward EPS Growth | Data not disclosed | No Guidance |
| Earnings Date | Not available | Coverage Gap |
Earnings Momentum Score: 3/10 — Company is unprofitable (EPS −$0.18) with negative revenue growth YoY (−13.7%). No forward guidance disclosed. Earnings trajectory deteriorating, not improving.
Profitability & Quality
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Operating Margin | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Net Margin | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| ROE / ROIC | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| FCF / FCF Trend | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Profitability Flag | False | Not Profitable |
Quality Score: 2/10 — Company exhibits weak profitability profile. System flag confirms "strong_profitability: false". Detailed margin and return data unavailable; however, negative EPS and contracting revenue signal fundamental quality deterioration.
Balance Sheet Health
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Total Debt | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Interest Coverage | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Current Ratio | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Balance Sheet Risk Flag | False | No Extreme Stress Signal |
Balance Sheet Risk: Moderate to High (6/10 Risk) — Detailed balance sheet metrics unavailable. System flag "weak_balance: false" suggests no acute distress, but limited transparency on cash position, debt burden, and liquidity. Unprofitable operations with contracting revenue increase burn-rate risk.
Valuation Analysis
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | Not meaningful (unprofitable) | N/A |
| Forward P/E | Data not disclosed | No Forward Guidance |
| PEG Ratio | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Price-to-Sales | Data not disclosed | Revenue Data Gap |
| EV/EBITDA | Data not disclosed | No EBITDA Disclosed |
| Valuation Flag | High Valuation: False | Not Overvalued (Relatively) |
Valuation Status: Speculative (4/10) — Traditional valuation metrics (P/E, forward P/E) not applicable due to unprofitability. Market cap of $1.56B on negative earnings and contracting revenue suggests market pricing in turnaround risk or speculative recovery scenario. System flag indicates valuation is not "high" in absolute terms, but risk/reward unfavorable given fundamentals.
Analyst Targets & Sentiment
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus Rating | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Target Price (Mean) | Not available | No Consensus Targets |
| Implied Upside | Unable to calculate | Insufficient Data |
| Target Dispersion | Unknown | Coverage Gap |
Wall Street Sentiment: Minimal Coverage (2/10) — Analyst target price and consensus rating data unavailable. Company appears to have limited institutional research coverage. Lack of analyst consensus suggests either low analyst interest or significant uncertainty regarding fundamental direction.
Institutional & Risk Check
| Risk Factor | Status | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership Trend | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Insider Activity | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Short Interest | Data not disclosed | Coverage Gap |
| Revenue Contraction | −13.72% YoY | High Risk |
| Unprofitability | EPS −$0.1806 | High Risk |
| 52-Week Drawdown | −42.51% | Severe Underperformance |
| Beta (Volatility) | 3.26x | Extreme Volatility |
Risk Level: CRITICAL (9/10) — Company exhibits multiple red flags: (1) Revenue collapse (−13.7% YoY), (2) Sustained unprofitability, (3) Extreme volatility (Beta 3.26x), (4) Stock down −42.5% YTD, (5) Minimal analyst coverage. Limited institutional data availability adds opacity. This is a high-risk, speculative position unsuitable for conservative portfolios.
Final ESEN Fundamental Verdict
22
Conviction Level: Low to Moderate
High uncertainty due to limited disclosure; deteriorating fundamentals support bearish bias.
High uncertainty due to limited disclosure; deteriorating fundamentals support bearish bias.
Short Term (1–3M)
Avoid
Medium Term (6–12M)
Avoid
Long Term (2Y+)
High Risk
Overall Recommendation
Sell / Exit
- Fundamental Deterioration: Negative EPS (−$0.18), shrinking revenue (−13.7% YoY), and zero guidance signal weakening business momentum. Profitability recovery not evident.
- Extreme Volatility & Drawdown: Beta of 3.26x and −42.5% YTD decline indicate severe investor skepticism. Stock vulnerability to further downside elevated.
- Data & Coverage Opacity: Missing earnings dates, forward guidance, detailed financials, and analyst targets suggest low institutional interest or disclosure issues, elevating execution risk.
- Balance Sheet Burn Risk: Unprofitable operations with declining revenue imply cash burn acceleration. Sustainability of operations unconfirmed without visibility into liquidity.
- Risk/Reward Unfavorable: Speculative turnaround potential does not justify entry at current valuations given macro headwinds, business contraction, and lack of catalyst visibility. Position only for risk-tolerant, thesis-driven investors.
AI STOCK INSIGHT
BBAI Stock Analysis & Forecast
Is BBAI a Good Investment in 2026?
Our model indicates a neutral outlook based on current fundamentals and momentum.
BBAI Stock Forecast
Based on recent earnings trends, valuation metrics, and sector performance, BBAI shows balanced risk-reward characteristics.
Should You Buy BBAI Now?
Investors should consider market conditions, volatility, and long-term positioning before taking a position in BBAI.