| Metric | Grade | Score | Evidence | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL ESEN MASTER SCORE | C+ | 62 | Mixed signals: strong 52W return (75%) offset by -67% EPS decline, elevated PE (51.8×), recent -5.3% daily move | 1–6M |
| SA Quality/Value Composite | C | 56 | High valuation flag triggered; forward PE 20.4× suggests modest relief; revenue decline -1.65% YoY; dividend yield 0.32% | 1–3M |
| Zacks Earnings Momentum | D | 38 | EPS cratered -67.38% YoY; Q2 beat ($2.38 vs. $2.26 consensus) provides tactical relief but insufficient to reverse momentum cliff | 1–3M |
| Institutional & Smart Money Flow | B | 73 | Multiple recent analyst upgrades (Stifel $176, Truist $165, BofA $160); Zacks raised to Strong Buy (Apr 2026); consensus Buy despite neutral undertones | 3–6M |
| Growth Sustainability & Moat | C+ | 63 | Revenue headwind (-1.65% YoY) offset by Q2 billed revenue per day +10% YoY and Asset-Light revenue +28%; brand restructuring in progress; LTL sector consolidation tailwind | 6–12M |
| Valuation & Safety (Pre-Penalty) | C | 54 | Current price $141.49 vs. forward EPS $6.93 (FwdPE 20.4×); 52W range $59.43–$176.69 shows extreme volatility; beta 1.55 amplifies market swings | 1–3M |
| Penalty Overlay (Execution, Macro Risk) | C | -8 | −8 pts: Restructuring execution risk, workforce reduction (2%), freight cycle sensitivity, analyst target dispersion ($76–$176 wide spread), recent price reversion (-5.3% today) | 1–3M |
| CONFIDENCE SCORE | B | 76 | Live data complete; analyst consensus clear (Buy/Outperform); Q2 fundamentals fresh; analyst target variance suggests limited consensus conviction | All |
| Volatility & Drawdown Risk | D+ | 45 | Beta 1.55 (50% above market); 52W drawdown from peak $176.69 to low $59.43 = −66.3%; recent -5.3% daily move; restructuring uncertainty compounds tail risk | 1–3M |
| Crowding Risk Flag | C+ | 62 | Multiple upgrades in tight timeframe (Truist, Stifel, BofA, Citizens Jul 2026); analyst target range wide ($76–$176); retail likely caught in mean reversion trap post-Q2 beat | 1–3M |
ArcBest trades within the Road & Rail integrated logistics cohort, competing against LTL and managed transportation peers (XPO, J.B. Hunt, Hub Group). The recent FedEx Freight spin-off (FDXF) reshapes the $50B+ North American LTL competitive landscape. ARCB's Q2 operational metrics—billed revenue per day +10% YoY, Asset-Light revenue +28%—suggest pricing power and modal mix shift favoring higher-margin services. However, headline revenue contraction (-1.65% YoY) and earnings collapse (-67% YoY) indicate cyclical freight demand weakness and margin pressure from rate wars, likely exacerbated by industry-wide capacity oversupply. The stock's 75% 52-week return and beta 1.55 imply elevated retail participation and technical mean reversion risk ahead.
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, ARCB has a median price target of $102.00 (ranging from $85.00 to $125.00) , though more recent upgrades have pushed consensus higher. Truist Financial raised its target to $165.00 , Bank of America increased its target to $160.00 , and Stifel raised its price target to $176 . At current price $141.49, the analyst range implies −33% to +24% upside/downside, reflecting wide conviction spread. Truist's target indicates 8.85% upside from recent levels.
Generated: 2026-08-15T03:42:04Z
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Generated: 2026-08-15T03:41:57Z
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ARCB Stock Analysis & Forecast
Is ARCB a Good Investment in 2026?
Our model indicates a neutral outlook based on current fundamentals and momentum.
ARCB Stock Forecast
Based on recent earnings trends, valuation metrics, and sector performance, ARCB shows balanced risk-reward characteristics.
Should You Buy ARCB Now?
Investors should consider market conditions, volatility, and long-term positioning before taking a position in ARCB.