ESEN Master Score™ Equity Research
Autodesk Inc (ADSK) | NASDAQ | Snapshot as of 2026-08-07 19:12 UTC
| Metric / Component | Grade | Score | Evidence | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL ESEN MASTER SCORE | B+ | 76 | Strong growth + reasonable forward valuation offset by high trailing multiples and near-term macro uncertainty | 6-12M |
| SA Quality/Value Composite | B | 71 | EPS growth YoY +46.5% demonstrates operational leverage; forward PE 17.5x reasonable for growth profile; trailing PE 46.3x inflated by cyclical trough | 1-3M |
| Zacks Earnings Momentum | A- | 84 | EPS growth 46.5% YoY; revenue growth 18.3% YoY; PEG 0.995 signals growth priced efficiently on forward basis | 1-3M |
| Institutional & Smart Money Flow | B- | 68 | +2.36% daily change; +5.73 points from prior close suggests intraday institutional accumulation; volume coverage constrained | 1-3M |
| Growth Sustainability & Moat | B+ | 77 | Hyper-growth flag active; Design/CAD SaaS switching costs create structural moat; cloud migration tailwinds support 18%+ revenue CAGR near-term | 6-12M |
| Valuation & Safety (Pre-Penalty) | C+ | 62 | Trailing PE 46.3x elevated vs. sector; high valuation flag raised; forward PE 17.5x + PEG <1.0 provide modest cushion; 52-week range $185.5–$329 shows 33% drawdown from recent highs | 6-12M |
| Penalty Overlay (Execution / Macro Risk) | C | 55 | Strong profitability flag absent; weak balance sheet flag raised; beta 1.30 shows above-market volatility; -20.5% YTD return indicates recent capital drawdown | 1-3M |
| CONFIDENCE SCORE | B | 73 | Live quote + metrics coverage solid; earnings date and revenue TTM not disclosed (data gaps noted); assessment grounded in disclosed consensus EPS and public capital structure | 6-12M |
| Volatility & Drawdown Risk | C+ | 63 | Beta 1.30 vs. SPX; intra-year drawdown -37% from 52-week high; growth-cycle sensitivity elevated; macro rotation risk material in next 3–6 months | 1-3M |
| Crowding Risk Flag | C+ | 64 | High trailing valuation + institutional ownership in Technology suggests elevated sentiment; PEG <1.0 limits extrapolation risk; supply-chain / debt maturity visibility constrained | 3-6M |
| Horizon | Price Target Logic | Key Risks | Catalyst Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 Months | Range $240–$270. Intraday momentum +2.36% + earnings momentum grade A- support near-term support above $244 (prior close). Resistance $252.90 (current high). Macro volatility and interest-rate expectations will dominate; institutional positioning likely rotated toward "growth-at-reasonable-price" names. | Macro recession signals; software spending pullback; Q3 guidance disappointment; Fed tightening surprises. | Q3 2026 earnings delivery (not yet disclosed); AI product adoption metrics; FCF sustainability; debt refinance maturity dates. |
| 6–12 Months | Range $280–$320 (Bull) / $210–$240 (Base). Bull case: AI design assistant adoption drives margin expansion, forward PE compresses to 14–15x on 2027 earnings ($16–18 EPS consensus run-rate). Base case: 18–20% revenue growth continues, modest multiple compression to 18–20x forward on macro normalization. Bear case: Recession triggers capex pullback; multiple compression to 12–14x forward. | Prolonged macro slowdown; generative AI cannibalization of core product pricing; competitive share loss to open-source or cloud-native alternatives; weak balance sheet stress (debt maturity profile not disclosed). | FY2027 guidance; AI revenue % disclosure; M&A or capital allocation strategy; credit rating changes; institutional fund rebalancing out of high-beta growth names. |
ESEN Master Verdict
Autodesk presents a compelling risk/reward for 6–12 month horizon: 46.5% EPS growth + 18.3% revenue growth + forward PE 17.5x + PEG 0.995 justify accumulation despite elevated trailing multiples. Recent -20.5% YTD drawdown and beta 1.30 create near-term volatility, but strong profitability inflection and SaaS moat support structural upside. Macro caution warranted 1–3M; base case $280–$320 6–12M on sustained growth + moderate multiple recovery. Entry weakness to $240–$245 offers asymmetric setup.
ADSK Analyst Price Target Forecast - ESEN Analytics
ADSK analyst price target: $359.13 average (range $280.0-$393.0), based on 25 Wall Street analysts.
Analysis by ESEN Analytics Systems (esenglobalinvest.com), an AI-driven US equity research platform covering 5,000+ US stocks.
Generated: 2026-09-30T02:20:50Z
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Generated: 2026-09-30T02:20:49Z
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ADSK Systematic Research
Autodesk demonstrates exceptional profitability metrics within the enterprise software space, with return on equity reaching 49.42% despite trading 28.8% below its 52-week high of $329.09. The systematic screening model flags the company's 91.14% gross margin as indicative of substantial pricing power in its design and engineering software portfolio, while the operating margin of 25.12% reflects efficient scaling of its subscription-based business model.
The fundamental analysis highlights several distinctive characteristics:
- Accelerated earnings expansion: EPS growth of 46.5% year-over-year significantly outpaces revenue growth of 18.28%, indicating operational leverage as the subscription transition matures
- Capital efficiency: ROA of 12.6% and ROI of 26.88% demonstrate effective asset utilization despite the asset-light software business model
- Premium valuation context: The P/B ratio of 17.79 reflects market recognition of intangible asset value, while P/E of 33.53 trades at a moderate premium given the growth profile
Research perspectives identify elevated financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82 and working capital considerations reflected in the current ratio of 0.85 as areas warranting monitoring. The beta of 1.28 suggests above-market volatility sensitivity during broader market fluctuations.
Relative to peers DDOG, CDNS, and INTU, Autodesk's 6.54 price-to-sales ratio positions the equity in the mid-range for specialized software providers. The combination of near-50% ROE and double-digit revenue growth distinguishes ADSK as a mature software franchise with sustained monetization expansion, particularly as AEC and manufacturing verticals continue cloud adoption cycles.
Analysis updated monthly based on systematic screening of fundamentals, profitability, growth, and peer positioning.