ETF Screener

The clearest convergence of the period: the Nasdaq gained 5.2% and QQQ drew $7.85 billion in inflows — the single largest ETF inflow of the week. Price leadership and capital flow pointed the same direction, which is exactly the confirmation this screen looks for. Driver: a negative July payrolls print cut September hike odds to 44%, and long-duration growth re-rated immediately. Key risk: the entire move rests on the rate path staying benign — the next inflation print is the test.

Technology reclaimed the top sector spot this period after energy held it previously, and the cheapest broad-tech sleeve in the screen at 0.09% captures it directly. The sector holds roughly 30% year-to-date gains. Key risk: that headline masks a wide split — software is up about 10% since 1 July while the semiconductor sub-sector fell roughly 15% over the same span before this week’s bounce.

Consumer discretionary and technology were the two sectors showing relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 this period. Held Aligned but trimmed two points for a specific reason: the same weak payrolls print that drove this week’s rally is a medium-term warning for this sector specifically. A labour market shedding jobs eventually reaches discretionary spending — the rate relief helps the multiple, not the earnings.

Gold miners were the top-performing industry group of the entire week as gold pushed above $4,400 an ounce. The setup is coherent rather than coincidental: falling rate-hike odds reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, and miners carry leveraged operating exposure to the metal price. Key risk: that leverage cuts both ways — if the next inflation print revives the hike case, miners give back more than the metal does.

The S&P closed at a record 7,757.64, up 3.6% on the week and a second consecutive weekly gain. The default allocation core at the screen’s lowest fee, capturing the rally without requiring a regime call — which mattered this period, because the regime call itself inverted.

The sharpest reversal in the screen: the semiconductor complex rose more than 7% this period, driving the Nasdaq’s outperformance after closing July with its worst month in over fifteen years. Two honest qualifiers keep this Tactical rather than Core: the chip index had fallen roughly 15% since 1 July before this bounce, and many individual names remain down 40–50% for the year. A genuine, powerful rebound — not a repaired trend.

Total-market core adding small and mid-cap breadth over VOO — a genuine advantage this period given the Russell 2000 matched the S&P at +3.52% on the lower expected rate path, at the same rock-bottom 0.03% fee.

Gold pushed above $4,400 an ounce, settling near $4,399.70 and up 2.33% on Friday, rallying four straight sessions to a seven-week high with its biggest one-day gain since February midweek. Upgraded on the falling rate path. Honest tension flagged: the fund recorded roughly $298M of outflows in the most recent reporting week even as the metal rallied — price and flow disagree here, and this edition shows both.

The most informative upgrade in the screen. Last period small caps sat out both the panic and the rebound entirely; this period the Russell 2000 matched the S&P at +3.52%, closing at 3,034.49 and up 1.10% on Friday. Small-cap earnings did not change — the expected rate path did. That makes this sleeve the cleanest single read on what actually drove the week.

The most liquid S&P wrapper, costlier than VOO but unmatched for size and options depth. Same record-close core read; drew $3.64B of inflows in the most recent reporting week.

Downgraded from Aligned after three consecutive editions. The case here was higher-for-longer supporting net interest margin; September hike odds fell from 55% to 44% this period and money markets stopped pricing any 2026 hike before December. Genuinely two-sided now: record index levels help fee-based revenue, but the jobs report showed financial activities shed 14,000 roles in July. Fundamentals unchanged; the macro argument carrying the sector weakened.

Drew $757M of inflows this period as allocators went abroad for semiconductor exposure through Samsung and SK Hynix. A useful cross-check on the chip rebound: capital committed internationally in the same week the US complex bounced 7%, which suggests conviction rather than a domestic short-cover. Confidence raised from Low as flows now corroborate what was previously a single extraordinary price event. Key risk: single-country concentration plus currency exposure.

A genuinely split sleeve holding both Alphabet and Meta, whose post-earnings paths diverged sharply in the prior period and neither of which reported fresh results this week. Held Neutral: the internal split that defined this sleeve has not been re-tested, and a carried divergence is not evidence of resolution.

New entry on a specific, dated policy catalyst: the White House imposed price floors and a 15% tariff on products made from polysilicon — the raw material primarily produced by China — lifting US solar names. Key risk: solar has a long history of sharp policy-driven reversals, this is a small and volatile sector, and no verified individual percentage move was available to size the reaction, so the score reflects the catalyst’s clarity rather than a measured move.

Defensives lag when risk appetite returns and VIX settles at 14.90. No fresh sector catalyst this period; trailing outflows persist. The rate relief helps the bond-proxy characteristics of staples at the margin, which is why this is a trim rather than a downgrade to Counter.

No fresh sector-wide catalyst this period. The countervailing forces are worth naming: a lower rate path helps capital-intensive industrials, but Q2 GDP slowed to a 1.5% annualised rate from 2.1% and payrolls contracted — a softening demand backdrop for the cyclical end of this sleeve.

The Korea allocation benefits from the same semiconductor conviction driving EWY’s inflows, and a softer dollar on the lower rate path is a mild mechanical tailwind for unhedged emerging exposure. The diversified wrapper captures a fraction of EWY’s concentrated bet — hence Neutral rather than Aligned.

Upgraded from Counter, reversing last edition directly. Treasury yields fell after the payrolls miss and September hike odds dropped to 44%, easing the pressure that made long duration untenable. Honest limit on the upgrade: money markets still price a 2026 hike, just later — around December — and trailing flows remain negative. This is pressure relief, not a pivot to easing, which is why it stops at Neutral.

The momentum factor worked cleanly this period after several editions of whipsaw — software and semiconductors, the two most crowded momentum expressions, both led. Upgraded but held at Neutral rather than Aligned: a factor that works because one macro variable moved is not the same as a factor with durable breadth behind it.

Cheap developed-market diversification at 0.05%. A softer dollar on the lower expected rate path is a mild mechanical tailwind for unhedged international exposure, but no fund-specific verified catalyst landed this period.

Upgraded from Counter for the same reason as TLT: this rate-sensitive sector faced a direct headwind while a September hike looked likely, and that probability fell to 44%. Still only Neutral — defensives lag when risk appetite returns and VIX sits near 15, and trailing flows are still negative.

Upgraded off Counter as the AI complex broadly rallied this period — chips up more than 7%, tech the top sector. But the structural objection stands: the highest-fee, thinnest-AUM thematic in the screen, and a basket structure means it cannot discriminate between the winners and losers of whichever split the market is currently pricing. Confidence stays Low.

Downgraded to Counter: healthcare led sector outflows in the reporting week, with only 4 of 11 sectors recording inflows overall. Defensive positioning is being unwound as risk appetite returns. Worth naming the counter-signal honestly: healthcare added 22,000 jobs in July, the strongest of any industry — the fundamentals are not the problem here, the positioning is.

The sharpest reversal in the screen: energy went from the prior edition’s Aligned sector to this week’s weakest, down over 2%, as crude fell on White House signals of a possible agreement with Iran to increase Strait of Hormuz traffic. Chevron lost nearly 5% and independent producers fell 7–8%. Two pieces of context matter: no deal has been announced, so this rests on an expectation and could reverse immediately; and the sector still holds roughly 30% year-to-date gains, so this is a giveback from strength, not a collapse.