Marathon Petroleum faced mounting headwinds over the past 30 days despite isolated margin-positive signals, as geopolitical supply disruptions and policy uncertainty dominated coverage. The dominant bearish narrative (89% average grade) centered on escalating Middle East tensions—Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure, maritime attacks, and a Qatar LNG facility accident—creating supply-side volatility that pressured refiner economics through competing dynamics. While crack spreads widened temporarily, offering refinement upside, this benefit was offset by Trump administration price-control threats and unexpected Iranian oil import authorizations, both undermining margin visibility. The sector's macro context reflects an energy market caught between supply disruption premiums and demand-destructive policy intervention. MPC's cyclical exposure positions it as a beneficiary of elevated crude volatility, yet geopolitical tail risks combined with executive pressure on retail fuel pricing create persistent uncertainty around downstream value capture. Forward catalysts hinge on Hormuz reopening probability and whether U.S.-Iran energy rapprochement persists, fundamentally reshaping medium-term refining fundamentals.