PBF
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MASTER
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ESEN VERDICT
Analyzing…
Horizon6–12M
Confidence—
Data coverage—
SNAPSHOT
Ticker
PBF
Company
PBF Energy Inc
Sector / Industry
Energy / Energy
Market Cap
$8.81B
Current Price
$73.85
Today Change
-0.51 (-0.69%)
52W High / Low
$74.74 / $21.82
52W Return
+222.2%
EARNINGS MOMENTUM
Coverage constrained: earnings history and forward guidance data not disclosed in current dataset.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing EPS (TTM) | $11.26 | Strong absolute profitability |
| EPS Growth YoY | Not disclosed | Limited visibility |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +13.54% | Solid expansion |
| Forward P/E | 8.42x | Reflects forward earnings expectations |
Interpretation: PBF exhibits strong current-year profitability (EPS $11.26) and positive revenue growth (+13.54% YoY). The forward P/E of 8.42x vs trailing 6.51x suggests modest earnings growth expectations embedded in current price. Exact quarterly trends unavailable.
Earnings Momentum Score: 7/10 | Direction: Cautiously Positive
Strong TTM profitability and revenue growth offset by limited forward guidance visibility. Cyclical energy exposure requires monitoring.
Strong TTM profitability and revenue growth offset by limited forward guidance visibility. Cyclical energy exposure requires monitoring.
PROFITABILITY & QUALITY
Financial statement detail not available in current dataset. Assessment based on available metrics and sector positioning.
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | Not disclosed | — |
| Operating Margin | Not disclosed | — |
| Net Margin | Not disclosed | — |
| EPS (TTM) | $11.26 | Solid near-term profitability |
| ROE / ROIC | Not disclosed | Capital efficiency unknown |
| FCF & Trend | Not disclosed | Cash generation visibility limited |
| Quality Flag | Strong Profitability: NO | System flag: not marked as strong profitability |
Analysis: Refining segment (downstream oil) typically operates on lower absolute margins but with high capital intensity. Current EPS of $11.26 reflects strong commodity refining margins in 2026. Detailed profitability and cash flow metrics are not currently disclosed. Quality score constrained by lack of detailed margin and cash generation visibility.
Quality Score: 5/10 | Verdict: Moderate — Cyclical Business, Data Gap
Strong near-term earnings support quality assessment, but margin stability, capital efficiency (ROE/ROIC), and cash flow trends remain opaque. Energy sector cyclicality adds uncertainty.
Strong near-term earnings support quality assessment, but margin stability, capital efficiency (ROE/ROIC), and cash flow trends remain opaque. Energy sector cyclicality adds uncertainty.
BALANCE SHEET HEALTH
Balance sheet detail not available in current dataset.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | Not disclosed | — |
| Total Debt | Not disclosed | — |
| Net Debt | Not disclosed | — |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | Not disclosed | — |
| Interest Coverage | Not disclosed | — |
| Current Ratio | Not disclosed | — |
| Share Dilution Trend | Not disclosed | — |
| Weak Balance Flag | NO | System flag not triggered |
Context: PBF Energy is a mid-cap independent refiner with significant capex requirements for maintenance and growth. The "Weak Balance" flag is NOT raised by the system, which is a positive signal. However, without explicit cash, debt, and liquidity metrics, stress-testing financial resilience is constrained. Refinery operations typically carry meaningful leverage to fund infrastructure.
Balance Sheet Risk: Moderate | Verdict: Cautious — Limited Visibility
System does not flag weak balance sheet, but lack of debt, cash, and coverage detail prevents full risk assessment. Refining capex intensity and cyclical earnings volatility warrant monitoring of leverage ratios and liquidity.
System does not flag weak balance sheet, but lack of debt, cash, and coverage detail prevents full risk assessment. Refining capex intensity and cyclical earnings volatility warrant monitoring of leverage ratios and liquidity.
VALUATION ANALYSIS
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 6.51x | Very cheap vs S&P 500 (~18-20x) |
| Forward P/E | 8.42x | Still compressed; implies ~15-20% EPS contraction or flat 2027 |
| PEG Ratio | Not calculable | EPS growth not disclosed; typical refiner PEG 0.4-0.6x when in cycle |
| P/S Ratio | Not calculable | Revenue TTM not disclosed |
| P/FCF Ratio | Not calculable | FCF not disclosed |
| EV / EBITDA | Not calculable | EBITDA not disclosed |
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% | Modest but present; DPS $1.08 |
| High Valuation Flag | NO | System does not mark as overvalued |
Deep Dive: PBF trades at a steep discount to the broad market on a P/E basis (6.51x trailing). This reflects (1) cyclical energy market dynamics, (2) refining margin compression risk, and (3) investor skepticism on energy transition. Forward P/E of 8.42x suggests modest near-term earnings growth or is pricing in margin headwinds. The lack of a "high valuation" flag and strong 52-week return (+222%) indicates the market has already repriced PBF from depressed trough valuations earlier in 2025-2026.
Valuation Status: Attractive on Multiple Basis | Verdict: Value Territory
Trailing and forward P/E multiples are well below market average. Discount justified by cyclicality and energy sentiment, but represents value opportunity if refining margins stabilize. Caution: valuation can compress further if macroeconomic demand falters.
Trailing and forward P/E multiples are well below market average. Discount justified by cyclicality and energy sentiment, but represents value opportunity if refining margins stabilize. Caution: valuation can compress further if macroeconomic demand falters.
ANALYST TARGETS & SENTIMENT
Analyst consensus data not available in current dataset.
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus Rating | Not disclosed | — |
| Mean Target Price | Not disclosed | — |
| High Target | Not disclosed | — |
| Low Target | Not disclosed | — |
| Implied Upside from Current ($73.85) | Not calculable | — |
| Target Dispersion | Not disclosed | — |
| Next Earnings Date | Not disclosed | Data gap flagged |
Note: Analyst consensus and earnings announcement dates are not available in the current data snapshot. To obtain Wall Street sentiment, you would need to consult analyst research databases (Bloomberg, FactSet, Refinitiv) or company investor relations for next earnings call.
Wall Street Sentiment: Unknown | Data Gap
Analyst target, rating consensus, and next earnings date unavailable. Recommend cross-referencing with Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance analyst summary, or company IR for current Wall Street view.
Analyst target, rating consensus, and next earnings date unavailable. Recommend cross-referencing with Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance analyst summary, or company IR for current Wall Street view.
INSTITUTIONAL & RISK CHECK
| Risk Factor | Data | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership Trend | Not disclosed | — |
| Insider Activity | Not disclosed | — |
| Short Interest / Short Float % | Not disclosed | — |
| Beta | 0.177 | Very low systematic risk; less volatile than market |
| Avg Volume (M shares) | 3.41M | Moderate liquidity; reasonable for mid-cap |
| 52W Range Spread | $21.82 – $74.74 (242% range) | Extreme volatility in absolute terms; reflects 2025-2026 recovery |
| Hyper-Growth Flag | YES (flagged) | System identifies high growth profile relative to peers |
| Red Flags (System) | None triggered | No weak balance or hyper-valuation alerts |
Risk Assessment:
• Sector Risk: Energy refining is cyclical; dependent on crude spreads, regional demand, and geopolitics.
• Regulatory Risk: Environmental regulations, emissions standards, and energy transition policies create structural headwinds.
• Commodity Risk: Refining margins highly sensitive to crude/product price spreads and operating rates.
• Liquidity: Low beta (0.177) suggests defensive characteristics, but volume is moderate—position sizing advised for institutional investors.
• Positive Signal: No balance sheet or valuation red flags raised by system; insider/institutional data gaps limit deeper assessment.
• Sector Risk: Energy refining is cyclical; dependent on crude spreads, regional demand, and geopolitics.
• Regulatory Risk: Environmental regulations, emissions standards, and energy transition policies create structural headwinds.
• Commodity Risk: Refining margins highly sensitive to crude/product price spreads and operating rates.
• Liquidity: Low beta (0.177) suggests defensive characteristics, but volume is moderate—position sizing advised for institutional investors.
• Positive Signal: No balance sheet or valuation red flags raised by system; insider/institutional data gaps limit deeper assessment.
Risk Level: Moderate-to-High | Verdict: Cyclical Sector Risk Dominant
Low beta and lack of system red flags are mitigating factors, but cyclical exposure to energy markets, regulatory headwinds, and macro sensitivity outweigh. Short interest, institutional flows not available; recommend additional due diligence.
Low beta and lack of system red flags are mitigating factors, but cyclical exposure to energy markets, regulatory headwinds, and macro sensitivity outweigh. Short interest, institutional flows not available; recommend additional due diligence.
FINAL ESEN VERDICT
60
Overall Fundamental Score
Conviction Level:
MODERATE — Constrained by data gaps; sentiment tilted toward cautious value positioning rather than high conviction.
MODERATE — Constrained by data gaps; sentiment tilted toward cautious value positioning rather than high conviction.
Time Horizon Breakdown
1–3 Months: Neutral | Near-term refining strength may support valuations
6–12 Months: Hold | Macro/energy sentiment and margin cycles key drivers
2Y+: Cautious | Structural energy transition headwinds loom
Investment Summary (5 Key Takeaways):
1. Valuation Attractive on Multiples: At 6.51x trailing P/E and 8.42x forward, PBF sits deep in value territory vs. market. Discount justified by cyclicality but represents opportunity if margins hold.
2. Strong Near-Term Earnings, Uncertain Forward: TTM EPS of $11.26 and +13.54% revenue growth YoY show solid 2026 execution. Forward P/E expansion to 8.42x suggests market is pricing in margin compression or flatter 2027 growth.
3. Data Gaps Constrain Quality & Health Assessment: Critical gaps in margin detail, cash flow, and balance sheet metrics prevent full conviction. Profitability and quality scores capped at 5-7 due to limited visibility into underlying operational efficiency and leverage.
4. Cyclical Energy Sector Risk Dominant: Refining fundamentals hinge on crude spreads, regional demand, and regulatory headwinds. Low beta (0.177) is defensive, but energy transition and macro sensitivity remain material long-term risks.
5. Suitable for Value/Income Investors Comfortable with Cyclicality: 1.48% dividend yield + upside from margin support appeal to value hunters. Recommend completing full balance sheet and cash flow review before position sizing; not suitable for growth-oriented or ESG-focused mandates.
1. Valuation Attractive on Multiples: At 6.51x trailing P/E and 8.42x forward, PBF sits deep in value territory vs. market. Discount justified by cyclicality but represents opportunity if margins hold.
2. Strong Near-Term Earnings, Uncertain Forward: TTM EPS of $11.26 and +13.54% revenue growth YoY show solid 2026 execution. Forward P/E expansion to 8.42x suggests market is pricing in margin compression or flatter 2027 growth.
3. Data Gaps Constrain Quality & Health Assessment: Critical gaps in margin detail, cash flow, and balance sheet metrics prevent full conviction. Profitability and quality scores capped at 5-7 due to limited visibility into underlying operational efficiency and leverage.
4. Cyclical Energy Sector Risk Dominant: Refining fundamentals hinge on crude spreads, regional demand, and regulatory headwinds. Low beta (0.177) is defensive, but energy transition and macro sensitivity remain material long-term risks.
5. Suitable for Value/Income Investors Comfortable with Cyclicality: 1.48% dividend yield + upside from margin support appeal to value hunters. Recommend completing full balance sheet and cash flow review before position sizing; not suitable for growth-oriented or ESG-focused mandates.
Analyst Rating: HOLD / ACCUMULATE ON WEAKNESS | Target Entry: $65–70 | Risk/Reward: Balanced for tactical positioning, guarded for structural thesis.
AI STOCK INSIGHT
PBF Stock Analysis & Forecast
Is PBF a Good Investment in 2026?
Our model indicates a neutral outlook based on current fundamentals and momentum.
PBF Stock Forecast
Based on recent earnings trends, valuation metrics, and sector performance, PBF shows balanced risk-reward characteristics.
Should You Buy PBF Now?
Investors should consider market conditions, volatility, and long-term positioning before taking a position in PBF.