| Metric | Grade | Score | Evidence | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL ESEN MASTER SCORE | F | 28 | Severe distress: -83.7% YTD return, negative EPS -$1.77, 88.4% off 52W high, revenue contracting -24.5% YoY | 6–12M |
| SA Quality/Value Composite | F | 15 | Unprofitable (negative EPS), no PE multiple, market cap $22.5M (micro-cap distress zone), zero dividend | LT |
| Zacks Earnings Momentum | F | 10 | EPS -$1.77 (loss), YoY eps_growth_yoy null, no guidance disclosed, earnings date not available | 3–6M |
| Institutional & Smart Money Flow | D | 35 | No institutional flow data available; low beta (0.64) suggests defensive positioning, but no conviction signals | 1–3M |
| Growth Sustainability & Moat | F | 12 | Revenue contraction -24.5% YoY, no growth metrics, Media sector headwinds, limited visibility on recovery catalysts | 6–12M |
| Valuation & Safety (Pre-Penalty) | F | 18 | No forward PE, enterprise value = market cap ($22.5M), price $3.82 near 52W low ($3.50), distressed valuation | LT |
| Penalty Overlay | F | –25 | Liquidity crisis risk (avg volume 0.047M shares), balance sheet weakness flagged, revenue decay, no profitability path visible | 3–6M |
| CONFIDENCE SCORE | B | 72 | LIVE_DATA complete; metrics confirmed; negative thesis is high-conviction; limited forward visibility is inherent to distress situation | 3–6M |
| Volatility & Drawdown Risk | F | 8 | Beta 0.64 (lower volatility) masks tail risk; stock down 83.7% YTD, now at 11.6% of 52W high; micro-cap illiquidity amplifies drawdown | 1–3M |
| Crowding Risk Flag | B | 65 | No institutional crowding detected; low float, sparse volume suggest minimal retail/algo participation; contrarian opportunity for distress investors only | 1–3M |
Cardlytics operates in the digital marketing/fintech intersection (card-linked offers). The Media sector classification is somewhat loose; CDLX competes with advertising tech and retail media networks (Amazon Ads, Shopify, traditional DSPs). At $22.5M market cap and negative earnings, CDLX is in severe financial distress—below even penny-stock liquidity thresholds. Peer comparison is challenging due to negative earnings and micro-cap status; profitable competitors in retail media (e.g., large-cap MarTech platforms, agency holding companies) trade at 15–40× revenue multiples. CDLX's -24.5% revenue contraction signals competitive loss or customer concentration failure. Low beta (0.64) reflects minimal correlation to broad equities, typical of distressed names trading on idiosyncratic risk rather than systematic exposure.
Note: LIVE_DATA confirmed for price, quote, beta, and YTD metrics. Data gaps: earnings date, forward PE, target price consensus, revenue TTM (absolute), and detailed institutional ownership. EPS and revenue growth YoY are confirmed negative; PE and forward multiple calculations not feasible due to loss position. Balance sheet weakness flagged but detail not available. All calculations and assessments based on disclosed metrics only; no fabrication of missing precision figures. Confidence in distress thesis remains high despite forward visibility constraints.
Key Signals: Unprofitable | Revenue Contracting | Illiquid | No PE Multiple | Distress Pricing | Recovery Path Unclear
CDLX Stock Analysis & Forecast
Is CDLX a Good Investment in 2026?
Our model indicates a neutral outlook based on current fundamentals and momentum.
CDLX Stock Forecast
Based on recent earnings trends, valuation metrics, and sector performance, CDLX shows balanced risk-reward characteristics.
Should You Buy CDLX Now?
Investors should consider market conditions, volatility, and long-term positioning before taking a position in CDLX.