Data as of 2026-07-29 10:46 UTC | NASDAQ: AMRN | Biotechnology
| Metric | Grade | Score | Evidence | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL ESEN MASTER SCORE | C+ | 58 | Structurally challenged biotech with negative earnings, 21.8% revenue contraction YoY, and profitability concerns offset by low valuation beta (0.76) and modest 52-week underperformance (-6.94%). | 12–24M |
| SA Quality/Value Composite | D | 42 | EPS -$0.73; revenue declining; PE unavailable (unprofitable); no dividend. Quality flags all negative (no strong profitability, no hyper-growth). Valuation floor exists but fundamentals are weak. | 6–12M |
| Zacks Earnings Momentum | D− | 35 | EPS growth YoY not disclosed; trailing EPS negative; no forward earnings guidance visible. Earnings date absent from dataset. No positive momentum signals. | 3–6M |
| Institutional & Smart Money Flow | B− | 68 | Stock recovered +1.01% today from $13.81 to $13.95 despite structural headwinds. 52-week range ($12.97–$20.90) shows modest intra-period volatility. Low beta (0.76) suggests defensive positioning by institutions in biotech downturn. | 1–3M |
| Growth Sustainability & Moat | D | 38 | Revenue -21.8% YoY signals significant commercial or pipeline contraction. No evidence of competitive moat, proprietary assets, or sustainable growth drivers in available data. Biotech sector headwinds evident. | 6–12M |
| Valuation & Safety (Pre-Penalty) | C | 55 | Market cap $289.7M; no P/E due to losses; trading near 52-week low. Not flagged as "high valuation." Margin of safety present but depends entirely on reversal of revenue decline. | 12M+ |
| Penalty Overlay (Profitability & Scale Risk) | −15 pts | −15 | Persistent negative earnings, material revenue contraction, and biotech execution risk warrant structural discount. Small market cap ($289.7M) increases binary risk profile. | 24M |
| CONFIDENCE SCORE | C+ | 64 | Data coverage: Quote (live), metrics (complete), profile (available). Key gaps: earnings date, forward guidance, institutional holdings detail. Biotech names require pipeline visibility absent here. | 6M |
| Volatility & Drawdown Risk | C− | 48 | Beta 0.76 (below-market); 52-week decline -6.94% (moderate). Biotech sector volatility and company-specific execution risk suggest 25–35% downside if pipeline or commercials disappoint further. | 6–12M |
| Crowding Risk Flag | B | 72 | Small cap; low average volume (0.0609M shares); 52-week underperformance suggests retail/retail-following underweight. Institutional crowding low; exit liquidity a concern on deterioration. | 3–6M |
Amarin operates in Biotechnology (NASDAQ) with a market cap of $289.7M—positioning it as a micro-cap within the sector. Peers of comparable scale (e.g., Alnylam, Acceleron pre-acquisition, emerging biotech firms) typically show similar revenue volatility, binary clinical/commercial outcomes, and valuation compression during downturns. The 21.8% YoY revenue decline is material and suggests either pipeline delays, commercial underperformance, or market share loss. Amarin's 52-week low proximity ($12.97 vs. current $13.95) and absence of forward guidance limit comparative confidence. Unlike larger biotech platforms (Vertex, Regeneron), small-cap positioning offers no institutional stability premium.
Technical: Stock at $13.95 is within 52-week trading range; daily uptick (+1.01%) shows modest short-covering or dividend/rebalance bid. Fundamental catalysts absent (no earnings date visible). Risk of further consolidation toward $12.97 support if biotech sector weakens or company issues negative guidance. Limited upside without material news.
Revenue inflection is the critical variable. If 21.8% YoY decline stabilizes and company achieves positive EBITDA trajectory, valuation re-rating to $16–18 is plausible. Conversely, if decline accelerates or pipeline assets underperform, downside to $10–11 is realistic. Earnings date and forward pipeline updates are essential triggers. Biotech sector macro (interest rates, FDA approval environment) will be material headwind or tailwind.
Amarin is a structurally challenged micro-cap biotech with negative earnings, material revenue contraction (−21.8% YoY), and absent forward guidance. While valuation is not stretched and defensive beta (0.76) offers some downside cushion, the company shows no clear path to profitability or revenue stabilization within visible horizon. Suitable only for risk-tolerant investors with deep pipeline knowledge or conviction on unannounced catalysts. For institutional/retail holders: monitor for earnings reset and pipeline updates; set stop-loss at $12.50 (52-week support). Not recommended for conservative or income-focused portfolios.
AMRN Stock Analysis & Forecast
Is AMRN a Good Investment in 2026?
Our model indicates a neutral outlook based on current fundamentals and momentum.
AMRN Stock Forecast
Based on recent earnings trends, valuation metrics, and sector performance, AMRN shows balanced risk-reward characteristics.
Should You Buy AMRN Now?
Investors should consider market conditions, volatility, and long-term positioning before taking a position in AMRN.