| Metric | Grade | Score | Evidence | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FINAL ESEN MASTER SCORE | B+ | 78 | Balanced growth thesis with moderate valuation; revenue +37.6% YoY offset by EPS contraction (-28.5% YoY); forward P/E 11.0x attractive vs. peer machinery median 14–16x | 6–12M |
| SA Quality/Value Composite | B | 75 | P/E 15.4x slightly elevated on trailing basis; forward P/E 10.99x implies reasonable repricing; dividend yield 0.998% stable; PEG ratio negative (EPS declining) signals caution | 1–3M |
| Zacks Earnings Momentum | C+ | 62 | YoY EPS growth −28.5% reflects near-term cyclicality or margin pressure; revenue strength (+37.6%) suggests demand resilience; forward P/E expansion indicates consensus expects recovery | 3–6M |
| Institutional & Smart Money Flow | B− | 70 | 52-week return +36% and new highs (price 118.88 near 52W high 137.62 suggests prior institutional accumulation); beta 0.97 indicates defensive institutional positioning | 1–3M |
| Growth Sustainability & Moat | B | 76 | Hyper-growth flag active; revenue growth +37.6% YoY demonstrates strong end-market demand; transmission OEM sector has moderate structural moat; EPS decline suggests temporary margin headwinds | 6–12M |
| Valuation & Safety (Pre-Penalty) | B+ | 79 | Forward P/E 11.0x offers 28% discount vs. machinery sector median; price-to-book and enterprise-to-revenue not disclosed; 52W range 76.01–137.62 shows material volatility but no distress signals | 3–6M |
| Penalty Overlay | −5 pts | −5 | EPS growth collapse (−28.5%) without disclosed forward guidance; missing earnings date creates visibility gap; negative PEG infers temporary profitability stress | 1–3M |
| CONFIDENCE SCORE | B | 72 | Data gaps: earnings date, TTM revenue, ex-dividend date absent; reliance on FY26/27 consensus estimates; sector fundamentals sound but earnings risk material | 6–12M |
| Volatility & Drawdown Risk | B− | 68 | 52-week range spans $61.61 (44% drawdown from high); beta 0.97 moderate; avg volume 1.01M shares shows adequate liquidity; institutional concentration may amplify exits | 1–3M |
| Crowding Risk Flag | AMBER | 64 | 52-week return +36% suggests crowded positioning; machinery sector rotation risk; forward P/E rerating from negative EPS growth could trigger profit-taking if guidance disappoints | 3–6M |
Allison Transmission operates in the industrial machinery/transmission OEM space, competing against Eaton Hydraulics, ZF Friedrichshafen, and Dana Incorporated. ALSN's forward P/E of 11.0x sits 25–30% below peer median (typically 14–16x for mid-cap industrial components suppliers). The 37.6% revenue growth substantially outpaces machinery sector averages (~8–12% pre-2025), positioning ALSN favorably within a cyclical recovery narrative. However, the −28.5% EPS YoY contraction is a material outlier; peer guidance typically remains positive through inventory normalization. This divergence warrants scrutiny: it may reflect Allison-specific cost pressures or temporary supply-chain lag, not sector-wide malaise.
Stock trades +2.27% today near 52-week high; institutional positioning still favorable (beta 0.97). Near-term risk: missing earnings report removes visibility catalyst. Crowding risk (amber flag) suggests caution on fresh entries until Q3 guidance clarifies EPS trajectory. Dividend yield (1.0%) provides modest downside cushion. Crowding Risk
Revenue growth +37.6% validates secular demand (electrification, commercial vehicle modernization). Forward P/E repricing to 11.0x implies consensus expects margin recovery by FY27. If EPS rebound to $7.50+ achievable, implied 52-week target $135–145 (11–12x forward). Key risk: OEM cyclicality; watch for commercial vehicle order books. Value Thesis
ALSN Stock Analysis & Forecast
Is ALSN a Good Investment in 2026?
Our model indicates a neutral outlook based on current fundamentals and momentum.
ALSN Stock Forecast
Based on recent earnings trends, valuation metrics, and sector performance, ALSN shows balanced risk-reward characteristics.
Should You Buy ALSN Now?
Investors should consider market conditions, volatility, and long-term positioning before taking a position in ALSN.
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